Pretoria works on Trump-proof strategy

• Plan to include finding other export markets

SA is devising a governmentwide strategy to navigate the Trump administration’s tit-fortat approach to global trade and as a pre-emptive measure against an expected expulsion from preferential access to US markets through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).

Factored in the “comprehensive Trump strategy” will be how SA can find other markets for its exports if the US imposes harsher measures against the country, said senior officials in the department of international relations & co-operation who are familiar with the matter.

“We are in a difficult space because we are dealing with an unpredictable administration,” one official said, adding that the influence of Afrikaner lobby groups in America, particularly among the Republicans in shaping the US agenda, complicated matters further.

“Trump has a group of South Africans who are part of his inner core who are opposed to transformation and the message they are giving to him is finding fertile ground.”

The expulsion of Ebrahim Rasool from the US last week was another pressure point for the government, which sought to reset its relations with the Trump administration.

The confrontation between the two nations came to a head when Trump signed an executive order halting funding to SA and providing refugee status to white Afrikaners.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Bana Pele ECD Leadership Summit on Monday, President Cyril Ramaphosa said he was waiting for a full report from Rasool on his return from the US. Rasool is expected to return later this week after being given 72 hours by the US at the weekend to leave the country.

He was declared persona non grata for comments he made against the US leader.

“Engagement is going to take a variety of forms through envoys, business and labour … improving our relationship with the US is a priority,” Ramaphosa said. “We don’t have enemies, we always seek to have good and friendly relations.”

Strengthening ties with other countries is already under way, with SA securing a R94bn investment package from the EU last week and deputy president Paul Mashatile in Japan this week on a working visit. Speaking on Monday during a visit to car manufacturer Isuzu, Mashatile described SA as a “gateway into the continent”.

SA has been at the forefront of ensuring that Agoa, which is up for renewal in September 2025, is retained as a cornerstone of US trade policy with Africa.

For SA, retaining its status as a beneficiary is crucial as Agoa provides preferential access for about 20% of the country’s exports to the US, or 2% of its shipments globally.

Since Agoa’s introduction, the value of SA ’ s automotive exports to the US have surged to R27.9bn in 2023, the last year for which official figures have been published.

SA is also a beneficiary of nonreciprocal preferential tariff treatment under the US Generalized System of Preferences.

Business Day previously reported on warnings by African Continental Free Trade Area secretary-general Wamkele Mene on the potential termination of Agoa, considering the US is moving away from free trade and towards protectionism.

The Trump administration’s transactional approach to diplomacy has changed the US approach in Ukraine, prioritising direct negotiations with Russia over traditional support for Ukraine.

The US has also imposed high tariffs on its top trade partners, including China and the EU, while tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2.

Trump’s administration has thrown HIV/Aids programmes funded by the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief into disarray.

In January, Trump imposed a 90-day freeze on all foreign aid pending a review, followed by “stop work” orders that brought HIV/Aids programmes worldwide to a standstill.

The US has also withdrawn from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, removing about $1bn from SA’s climate financing. The budget tabled on March 12 did not make any direct allocation to departments to compensate for the loss in US funding.

The government’s delegation to the US has not yet been appointed by the president. The yet-to-be-appointed envoys are expected to present the Trump administration with bilateral trade package deals to accommodate the administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy.

“The president has not even appointed the delegation, so there was no scheduled visit. Therefore, we couldn ’ t postpone an event that was not scheduled, ” Ramaphosas ’ spokesperson Vincent Magwenya said.