All is not lost while the sun breaks through the clouds

Have we been so caught up in the doom and gloom that hangs over the land that we cannot see the rays of sunlight penetrating the dark clouds?

This became obvious at a recent event hosted by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) to launch its publication, The Evolving Structure of SA’s Economy.

The 588-page tome consists of harsh, yet illuminating, reflections on various aspects of the economy ranging from macroeconomics and industrial policy to just transition issues.

An adjunct to the book launch was a discussion on the theme of writing a positive economic narrative, Mistra’s response to requests that “someone” capture the good things happening in SA.

Economist and public commentator JP Landman got the ball rolling, arguing that SA’s shift to a green economy could be when we fundamentally restructure our economic foundations.

Sometimes it is difficult to get excited about significant developments when they are couched in the dull language of cabinet statements, but last week’s missive captured significant developments on the energy front.

These included the granting of trading and import/export licence applications to the National Transmission Company, paving the way for the procurement of power from around the region; improvements at the Kusile power station, and Eskom’s stable rating by Moody’s ratings agency.

The business sector and government have set up working groups to tackle the key issues of energy, logistics and crime. Implementation of the widely supported Energy Action Plan, led by the joint business, labour and government National Energy Crisis Committee, is already seeing positive results, with the possibility of reducing loadshedding by year end and ending it by December 2024.

And this is not only on the coal-powered side: there are already 114 projects for 17.5GW of wind and solar capacity at various stages of development due to the energy one-stopshop, launched in July to speed up responses to applications. “Energy is the new investment frontier of SA, and it will do for the country what the discovery of minerals like diamonds and gold did,” Landman had previously pointed out.

SA’s other economic crisis is on the logistics side. Through the National Logistics Crisis Committee, corridor recovery teams have been established for five strategic rail corridors.

You wouldn’t think the government is addressing the opportunities and challenges of the fourth industrial revolution when the cabinet statement says that it has considered the report of the Competition Commission’s online intermediation platform market inquiry.

Another ray of sunshine is that in the first half of 2023 SA’s manufacturing sector drew up to R24bn in investment, including a big investment by BMW to produce hybrid vehicles and ArcelorMittal’s development of a 200MW solar photovoltaic plant.

The estimate in the National Infrastructure Plan 2050 is that SA will need R4.4-trillion in investment for water, energy, freight and digital over the next 27 years. Given today’s fiscal constraints it requires longterm commitment from the public and private sectors for us to reach that holy grail of the 5% growth rate required to reduce poverty and unemployment.

As seemingly insurmountable as this target may seem, we can probably take solace from Landman’s words: “Just ignore those who lament that SA is not investable — the ground has already shifted under them; they just have not noticed it yet.”

“Kumbaya” has its roots in a spiritual song sung by West African slaves, appealing to the Lord to “come by here”. It came to refer to times when people come together to deal with the challenges of the day. Performances by artists such as Pete Seeger and Joan Baez made it an anthem of activists of the 1960s. More recently it has become a term of derision, to dismiss idealism.

As we notice the shafts of golden sunlight coming through the dark clouds, perhaps we should all be singing kumbaya with its original meaning in mind.