Effect of Cape floods on crops unclear

The Western Cape, which accounts for more than two-thirds of SA’s winter crops and a large share of wine grapes and various horticulture products, faced another heavy, destructive flood last week. The rainfall peak was mainly in the southern Overberg region.

Significant damage to farm infrastructure, electricity supply and roads has been reported in various small farming towns of the province, mainly the southern areas. Still, the effect of the floods on wine grapes and table grapes remains unclear, as industry horticulturalists continue assessing the fields.

I have seen anecdotal evidence of damage to some storage facilities and crop fields in the southern regions. Another challenge caused by wet soils has been the difficulties of tractors spraying herbicides and fertilisers, so some farmers now use drones to spray the fields. Perhaps this is a positive step towards technological advancement accelerated by unfavourable weather conditions.

Regarding the winter crops — mainly wheat, barley and canola — the focus has been on whether the rains might undermine yield potential. As best I can tell, and from various interactions with farmers, we suspect the effect on crops will be minimal, but the harvest quality may be an issue.

The southern regions could have some damage, but the scale remains unclear. I maintain a positive view of SA’s 2023/24 winter crop harvest.

On September 27 the Crop Estimates Committee released its second production estimate for winter crops and kept the likely wheat harvest at 2.1-million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season. It is well above the 10-year average harvest of 1.8-million tonnes.

This is supported by an expected large crop in the Western Cape and Limpopo that overshadowed the anticipated decline in the Free State, Northern Cape and other provinces. Crop conditions in the Western Cape are thus far more consequential for SA’s winter wheat harvest size. Monitoring crop conditions in the coming weeks is crucial.

LARGEST CROP

Assuming that there will be no major changes in the crop forecast in the coming months, one can be confident in a wheat harvest of 2.1-million tonnes, which implies SA will probably have to import about 1.6-million tonnes of wheat to meet domestic consumption in the 2023/24 season (down from the forecast 1.7-million tonnes in the 2022/23 season). Still, one must keep an eye on the committee’s report of October 26, as this would account for the effect of the heavy rains in the Western Cape.

Moreover, 2023/24 barley production is estimated at 389,920 tonnes (up 29% year on year). This will be the largest crop in three years, mainly supported by an expansion in the area planted and the anticipated better yields. The 2023/24 canola crop is estimated at a record 230,950 tonnes, slightly down from September (up 10% year on year). The annual uptick is also due to increased plantings and expected better yields.

The next committee report will also provide further insights into the yield expectations for these crops and whether the recent floods have had a more severe effect than we now see.

Western Cape dams are generally full. The dams’ improvement will help irrigation of horticulture fields in the coming months. Still, the immediate need for farmers and farming towns is help in fixing the infrastructure so that commercial activities can resume. The roads, storage facilities and electricity supplies are probably the areas to prioritise, since they are vital for storing and transporting products. The interventions could be made by the provincial and national governments, while businesses will also focus on fixing farming infrastructure.

The recent rains were costly to farming, but we don’t have a full picture yet. I remain optimistic that the province will have a decent harvest.